Democratic Administrations are Better on the Economy than Republican Ones

They just are.

Democrats aren’t bad on the economy. They’re bad on messaging on the economy.

Many Americans—probably every Republican and even some Democrats—believe Republican presidents are better stewards of the economy than Democratic ones. Americans believe this not because it’s true but because in recent decades Democrats have been very bad at messaging what is true. Namely, that the economy prospers more under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.

In October 2024, the Joint Economic Committee, a bipartisan congressional committee, reported that since the 1980s job growth has been substantially greater under Democratic presidents. Examining the last seven presidents, job growth totaled over 50 million under Democratic presidents compared to 17 million under Republican presidents. Under President Joe Biden, job growth totaled over 16.2 million. In President Donald Trump’s first term, there were 2.7 million fewer Americans employed when he left office than when he arrived. That made President Trump the first president in the modern era to oversee net job losses. President Trump is off and running again in the first 100 days of his second term, overseeing at least 121,000 federal worker layoffs.

In March 2024, an article from Harvard Kennedy School demonstrated that since World War II the United States economy has consistently done better under Democratic presidents. In that time, Democrats have seen job creation average 1.7% per year when in office compared to 1.0% under Republicans. U.S. GDP has averaged a rate of growth of 4.23% per annum during Democratic administrations compared to 2.36% under Republicans.

These numbers are likely too technical to move many voters. So I will give a plain number. Americans care about whether we are in a recession or heading toward one. Of the 11 recessions in the modern era, 10 began under Republican presidents. There has only been one recession in the last 70 years that took place with a Democrat in the White House.

Economists haven’t yet been able to definitively say why Democrats do better on the economy. No administration has total control over the economy’s health, or even very much control at a lot of crucial points. But the statistics aren’t random. The Kennedy School calculated the odds that it was chance that 9 of the last 10 recessions started when a Republican was president. The odds were one out of 100. They call those odds statistically remote.

There exist very educated arguments for why Democrats do better on the economy. Democrats have historically worked to increase taxes on the wealthy. They use that money to pay off debts and funnel the rest into middle class job programs. Republicans use the word taxes as the boogeyman. They make the simplistic and misleading argument that no taxes means more money in your pocket. The even more Republican thing to say is that no taxes on the ultra rich means more money to trickle down to the lower classes. Of course Republican leaders don’t really believe that. They believe in making their rich friends even richer. It’s an irresponsible argument that, when administered, balloons the deficit, increases the national debt, hikes up unemployment, skyrockets inflation, and makes our standing in the world weaker.

Democrats are better on the economy. It’s a simple and effective message. But Americans don’t hear about it. Right now Democrats are in the left field bleachers spending an inexplicable amount of time talking about abortion and defending men in women’s sports.

Democrats could win a lot more if they focused. It’s not complicated to say a plain fact. “Middle class worker in rural Alabama: if you want a good job and good money, vote Democrat.”